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Absorption Rate Analysis – May 2025: Sometimes Stable Terrain Deserves a Closer Look

 

If you’ve stepped away from our absorption rate analysis for a few months, you could easily look at May’s stats and think nothing’s really changed. It’s true, most of our neighborhoods have spent months hovering roughly around the same absorption rate range. Here’s a town hopping up a percentage point or two. There’s a neighborhood dropping a point. A lot of these neighborhoods almost feel… stable? That being said, a closer look reveals that all (except one) of the neighborhoods we analyze have moved in the opposite direction from where they were headed in April. And one city has even hit a record low absorption rate. Any guesses? Well, let’s dive into our FAQs before getting down to business. 

  • Burbank – 36%
  • Encino – 15%
  • Glendale – 41%
  • Long Beach – 36%
  • Los Angeles – 22%
  • Northridge – 36%
  • Palmdale – 27%
  • Pasadena – 35%
  • Rancho Cucamonga – 28%
  • Reseda – 25%
  • Upland – 33%
  • Valencia-Santa Clarita – 32%
Photo credit: Ian D. Keating

Absorption Rate FAQs

What is an absorption rate?

An absorption rate is a statistic that we can use to gauge whether a market’s conditions favor home buyers or sellers. Absorption rates of 18% or higher are typically indicative of a seller’s market, whereas absorption rates of 15% or lower suggest a buyer’s market. However, these are simply helpful guides as opposed to hard rules. 

JohnHart only factors single-family homes in absorption rates. What about townhomes, condos, etc.? 

The truth is that JohnHart’s clients overwhelmingly prefer single-family homes to townhouses, condos, and the like. Therefore, to create an analysis that mirrors our clients’ preferred interests, we focus strictly on single-family homes when assessing our absorption rates for the month. 

How does JohnHart calculate absorption rates?

We use the universally approved formula: 

The Great Cucamonga Cannonball of May 2025

While most of our surveyed areas moved no more than a couple of percentage points in May, Rancho Cucamonga prepared for the summer with a cannonball dive of 8 percentage points closer to the buyer’s market. This brings the San Bernardino County community to an overall 28% absorption rate. That’s pretty low, but even more impressive considering how high Rancho Cucamonga typically registers in our absorption rate analysis. Buyers take note. This is the lowest we’ve seen Rancho Cucamonga plunge since we started publishing our numbers! 

Burbank Buyers’ Boon

We’ve definitely seen steeper drops, but it’s still worth mentioning that Burbank fell the second farthest toward the seller’s favor with a 6 percentage point plunge, settling at a 36% absorption rate. This isn’t a shocking number for Burbank by any stretch of the imagination. However, if we look at Burbank’s absorption rates over the course of the last couple of years, we can see a wider trend of the competitive city finding its happy medium in a more reasonable segment of the seller’s market. So, it’s not fantastic news for Burbank homeowner hopefuls, but much better than the atmosphere two years ago. 

Encino Holds It Down

When it comes to the buyer’s market, however, Encino continues to be the untouchable standard. It’s also one of the very few neighborhoods we analyze that waltzes into the buyer’s favor from time to time. And May 2025 is arguably one of those times. Even with a single percentage point upward bump, Encino holds the lowest absorption rate for May at 15%, right at the threshold of the buyer’s market. 

The Market’s Never Stale in Glendale

Photo credit: Gary B. Edstrom

Another of our most in-demand neighborhoods boasted the steepest surge in May, leaping up a significant 7 percentage points to secure the highest absorption rate of the month at 41%. This neighborhood is, of course, Glendale, home to one of the earliest JohnHart Real Estate offices. We’ve already sung the praises of Glendale on this blog. But trust us, it’s doing just fine on its own (as the numbers suggest). 

The Low End of High

Not too far behind Glendale, Upland had the second most dramatic leap upward with a modest 5 percentage point jump. This brings the San Bernardino County neighborhood to an overall 33% absorption rate in May. It’s pretty much par for the course for this competitive community, even if it’s at the lower end of the usual range. 

A Stable Platform for Launching Plans

So, yes, May’s absorption rates were uneventful at first glance, but a closer look shows that there’s a bit more going on with at least one community breaking into new frontiers to the buyers’ benefit. Is this the start of a greater shift toward the buyer’s market, or possibly an indicator of more inventory trickling into the market before the floodgates give way? We’ll have to keep watching to say for certain.

Still, the overall stability of the market, at least for now, is creating a perfect platform for launching plans at the cusp of the competitive summer months. If you haven’t started refining your strategy, there’s no time like the present. Reach out to one of our expert agents and use this opportunity to give yourself an advantage before even setting foot on the field! 


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